With the overwhelming coverage of the media on electric vehicles, electric vehicle market in China seems to begin to take off - the vast majority of mainstream car manufacturers are actively developing electric cars, the Government also provides a strong policy and financial support. However, the electric vehicle market could soon start? This will depend on many factors, one of the key is the charging infrastructure.
Most electric vehicles rely on the slow charge pile at home or work place near to meet the charging needs, is an accepted fact. However, the booming market of electric vehicles depends on a convenient and rapid solution, there are two options, replace the laptop battery and fast charging. Auto manufacturers, battery manufacturers, power grids, service providers and consumers have different preferences and interests lie. The game will be between the two options for the future development of electric vehicle industry in China have a significant impact. Many Chinese local automobile manufacturers support the replacement of the battery, because it makes them without in-depth understanding of integrated battery technology quickly to market low-cost electric vehicles. In order to protect their business efficiency and economic interests, China's two power grid companies have become powerful agents of change for the acer battery replacement mode. Early electric car buyers may be attracted by its low purchase price, and without regard to the potential life of lithium.
Therefore, the battery replacement is more likely to become the dominant mode of the quick service. Faced with such a development trend, market participants must re-adjust their electric vehicles and ancillary charge strategy. International automobile manufacturers in particular, need to make a choice to follow the global electric vehicle development strategy in China, or take a special treat for the Chinese market. Service providers need to think about how to effectively control the risk of instability of dell battery technology development while providing the best customer experience, innovative business model is one of the key.
Government policies need to ensure that the necessary charging infrastructure is in place, while in the service sector to promote open competition in the market. Particularly important for emerging markets can learn from developed countries, there is no mature business model, with an open mind.
The development of electric vehicles in China
The electric vehicle market in China is evolving, but for many people was not quick enough. Leap forward in this industry seems to power, it will really achieve?
The Chinese government for the purpose of reducing oil dependence and emissions, and provides a strong financial incentive grant program for electric vehicles, and has developed a goal to become the world's leading electric vehicle hp laptop battery development country and the country of manufacture, electric vehicles also among the seven strategic emerging industries. Chinese parties are best for electric vehicles: the car manufacturers have received state aid, while state-owned power grid companies and the oil companies are also urged to establish a charging facilities network as soon as possible.
The automobile manufacturers have been a lot of R & D and production work, among the relevant science and technology are making progress. Whether foreign or domestic mainstream car manufacturers are ready to be released within the next few years, the new pure electric or plug-in hybrid.
This booming trend in the strong government subsidies, another contributing important factor is the continued progress of notebook battery technology. Battery energy density in the end of 2011 is expected to reach 150 Wh / kg to 500Wh/kg 2020 will cost from $ 750 / kWh down to $ 150 / kWh. This will enable automobile manufacturers were able to effectively to quickly lower the price of pure electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles, increase market acceptance.
July 2011 issued by the Ministry of Science and Technology on the electric car "12" special planning to establish a "12" during a pure electric vehicle technology in a small passenger car route, and the establishment of electric vehicle ownership in 2015 to achieve the goal of 1 million. Kearney forecast in China, sales of electric vehicles will climb in the next two to three years, the cumulative total sales of electric vehicles is expected to reach 85 million units in 2015 to 2020 about 500 million units. Most electric vehicles will be used for a second vehicle for private cars and commercial vehicles.
All the trends are clear, but there are still a major obstacle need to be overcome: the establishment of charging facilities.
About to start charging infrastructure markets
Kearney survey shows that most people can rely on the slow charging facilities, but the deployment of rapid public charging facilities is the key to break the electric vehicle to accept obstacles, shown in Figure 1. Different types of charging facilities must demand the coordination of the layout, in order to effectively promote the development of the electric vehicle market.
Excitation of the government policies to promote long-term market opportunities, state-owned power grid companies and the oil companies into action. By the end of 2010, about 76 fast charge / replace the Laptop Battery for Dell XPS M1730 station with more than 6500 charging pile operations.
- National Grid is currently charging facilities market leader. After years of discussion, the State Grid has developed a plug charge "for power generation, supplemented by centralized charging uniform distribution of the mode of operation. Expected in 2020, the State Grid plans to build 10,075 battery replacement stations with a total investment of 32.3 billion yuan, and 500 000 charging piles with a total investment of 12.5 billion yuan.
- China Southern Power Grid has also started construction in Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Nanning and Kunming, about 10 charging stations and 350 charging pile. China Southern Power Grid has the main push of fast charging stations, to change strategy in early 2011, however, contract with the Better Place battery replacement stations established within the service area. The contract agreement in Guangzhou in 2011 years a Battery for APPLE A1175 replacement station and Experience Center, and will work together to set up a joint venture. The joint venture will become the entry point of the Better Place in the Chinese market.
With the existing network of petrol stations, oil companies are also actively seeking to enter this market.
- Sinopec Beijing branch has been established with the First Division Group of the first subjects of the joint venture in petrochemical New Energy Technology Co., Ltd.. This joint venture will focus on the transformation of existing gas stations, integrated battery charging service. Sinopec also consider battery replacement in the future to carry out business. Overall, Sinopec's goal is to establish an integrated refueling charge service stations.
- In addition, CNOOC Tianjin Lishen Battery invest 5 billion yuan, the construction of a joint venture in Shenzhen and Hangzhou and charging stations.
However, due to potential conflicts of interest, the efforts of the oil companies are often subject to the constraints of the power grid companies.
Slow charging network: consensus
Electric vehicles almost every day needs to be charged. Therefore, the easiest way to deploy charging facilities in locations convenient to the owners, such as the family garage, public parking, workplace parking lots.
Kearney's survey shows that a typical consumer can rely on to meet the daily needs of nearby charging pile, shown in Figure 2. This is recognized by the auto manufacturers, camera battery manufacturers, service providers, power grids and consumers, including the parties.
Personal charge pile of practical significance for the electric vehicle owners to have a private garage. Electric car owners for private or fixed parking spaces, should be actively planning the public slowly filling facilities located near residential areas and work units. Since most of China's electric vehicle owners will focus on the district live in cities, this part of the planning is particularly important.
Kearney forecast China slow charge pile the total number expected to reach 4.7 million by 2020, an average annual compound growth rate of 103%, shown in Figure 3.
The remaining question is who will be the construction and operation of these facilities. Kearney think that the grid is the most suitable candidates for the main building. According to the Electricity Law of the People's Republic of China, only the grid to allow the sale of electricity, if the regulations is not adjusted, the involvement of other service providers will be greatly hindered. Due to slow charge pile construction may need to be near distribution facilities expansion, without the active cooperation of the Grid Corporation of difficult to implement.
Charge pile local construction needs in the district, parking, business center, the grid company must also cooperate with the property management department of the above locations or property owners, jointly operated trickle charge pile. Property managers, owners, or local government for charging facilities remain designated a specific area, to assist the day-to-day maintenance, and revenue sharing.
Each slow charge pile is currently consuming about 8000 yuan, can be filled with an electric car in about four to the eight hours. In Shenzhen has been the implementation of the rules, for example, Grid Corporation of commercial electricity rates for charging service billing, successive charges. Consider the income of the public charging pile, in Figure 4, assume the grid electricity cost is 85% of the retail price of the period distribution of user charging for off-peak hours at night to 30% and 70%, the daily peak hours, and the slow charge pile The overall utilization rate has increased annually, the average annual income is shown in Figure 5 shows, the total cost of recovery can be completed in six to eight years.
Fast charging and battery replacement choice: the smoke is from the
Quick service network represents a more competitive market, which is where most of the focus of debate and positions of contention.
The main intention of consumers to buy electric vehicles daily traffic, but each owner from time to time over the weekend to the outskirts of travel to distant lands, or to visit far away friends and relatives. Even if some car owners do not need such long-distance travel, they would still worry about stranded because they can not charge it in time, this is the so-called "range anxiety". Therefore, rapid public charging network is essential for the development of electric vehicles.
Reference to the number of petrol filling stations in China and penetrate the potential market for electric vehicles, AT Kearney expects 2020 the whole territory of about 15,000 quick service stations, including fast charging stations and battery replacement stations, the compound annual growth rate 72%, shown in Figure 5.
A. two choices: fast charging and battery replacement
Fast service can be done by the fast charging or battery replacement. Fast charging compared with the trickle charge to use a higher voltage and higher current, 80% of the battery charging can be completed in less than half an hour. Cancorder Battery replacement is the use of a sophisticated automated system to rapidly replace the depleted battery, the battery is fully within five minutes, and after battery cooling and charging work in the background.
The fast charge is the more traditional options, and can be more easily understood by consumers, because it uses a very similar business models and traditional gas stations. Can be used in the billing, pay-per-view or use the service pack in two ways. The key to its success include the establishment of the communication protocol between the unified jack standard battery with the power grid. However, if the effective temperature, fast charging can cause great harm to the ACER Aspire 4736Z Laptop Battery, reducing battery life.
In contrast, the battery replacement is more rapid solution, can be completed within 5 minutes. Take into account the weight and technical features of the battery, battery replacement methods and the professionalism of the staff requirements higher. It uses a more complex business model based on the battery lease: the service providers to buy and have the battery, With these battery replacement service, consumers do not buy any batteries in the purchase of bare car. Consumers can buy based on monthly mileage service pack, and a monthly fee. The key to its success is unified between the different models of battery standards. Therefore, this market by battery manufacturers, automobile manufacturers and service providers to jointly promote.
The two business models have been pilot applications in different markets in the world. Better Place Denmark and Israel, Battery Acer Aspire 5530 Replacement pilot project. At the same time, the Coulomb Technologies is a rapid charging facilities network.
These two models will form a completely different business model, far-reaching implications for the entire electric vehicle industry. Both the final outcome of the game there are still large uncertainties, but there has been some progress: the relevant consultation already in progress, different strategies have been designed, and government lobbying activities is also carried out.
The future of electric vehicles, public fast service facilities in the end going? To answer this question, we have to charge electric vehicles ecosystem analysis and understanding of the key role of strategic intent.
B. interests of the Great Game: how the preference
Businesses and consumers to have their own interests lie, and to defend the interests through a series of marketing campaigns or lobbying activities. To predict the future of electric vehicle charging facilities, we must understand their foothold where. The value chain of the electric vehicle charging facilities covered by the ACER Aspire 8730Z Battery manufacturers, electric vehicle manufacturers, Power Grid Corporation, charging service providers and consumers of different roles, as shown in Figure 6.
(1) electric car manufacturers and battery manufacturers
Car manufacturers and battery manufacturers are divided on the fast charging and battery replacement. Their choice depends primarily on their technical level as well as their overall strategy (cost-driven and performance-driven).
Most of the international automobile manufacturers support fast charging. They are convinced that the power system technology is the embodiment of the core competitiveness, and to ensure that their pricing power in the market. These automobile manufacturers hope to launch as many as possible differences in products, to ensure maximum profits. They are usually in close cooperation with ACER TravelMate C210 battery manufacturers or integrators. One example is the BMW cooperation with SBLimotive (Samsung and Bosch joint venture), the use of distributed battery weight and balance technology provides a superior driving performance. Similar cooperation is also seen with Magna, Ford and LG Chem of GM Compact Power (LG), and Toyota with Panasonic (electric vehicles, energy). These automobile manufacturers committed to give full play to the vertical integration of technology and capacity of the battery manufacturer. Through this strategy, they can ensure that their technological competitiveness, and as soon as possible to release models with exclusive battery technology.
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